September 4, 2010

How Apple Changed The Terms Of War

While most of the blogosphere is going haywire over Gizmodo’s leak of the next generation iPhone hardware, and Apple is most likely gearing up their warfare against the Gawker Media Network, I’d like to take a look at another battle Apple’s been involved with for quite some time: Apple vs. Microsoft.

For as long as I can remember Apple and Microsoft have competed for market share in personal computing. No matter how you feel about the giant from Redmond, one has to admit that they have clearly pulled ahead in this battle. Yes, Apple has increased its market share quite impressively in the past few years, but it remains doubtful that they would be able to dethrone Microsoft anytime soon. At least not by the terms that we would define victory with TODAY.

What would happen, however, if Apple would simply change the terms that define the outcome of the war? Change the game from Windows vs. Mac to something entirely different?
I believe this is exactly what is happening in Cupertino right now. A few years ago, Apple seems to have shifted its strategy away from their laptop and desktop lines and focused their energy on iPhone, iPod Touch, and — most importantly — iPad instead. With the recent release of iPad and the months long delay of a refresh to the laptop lineup this is now more apparent than ever. Furthermore, these iDevices are not an incarnation of the Macintosh, they are pitched as a brand new platform. A unique group of gadgets in which Apple is the clear market leader.


This, of course, is move of genius on Apple’s part. Instead of competing in the saturated desktop market, Apple simply invented a new one in which Microsoft is all but a blip on the radar and Google & Co are desperately playing catch up. (In terms of market share, mind you.)

Here, the choice isn’t between Windows or Mac anymore. It’s between iPad and Microsoft Courier, or Android Tablet; neither of which have even been officially announced yet. Basically it’s a choice that clearly favors Apple.

The big question remains, however, if Apple’s lead in this new sector could truly have an impact on Microsoft’s bottom line. After all, the traditional computing market is substantially larger than all iDevices (Apple or not) combined. And in that market, Microsoft remains the undefeated leader. Therefore, it would be reasonable to argue that Apple’s strong lead in mobile platforms can not affect Microsoft’s stronghold on desktops. This argument may only stand true for the time being, however, since I believe that Apple is thinking big picture here.

For Apple, the current lineup of iPhone’s, iPod’s, and iPad’s is nothing but just the beginning of a transformation of the personal computing landscape. Not only will Apple add more power to its iDevices each year, they will also — and perhaps more importantly — hand their customers additional tools with every passing generation. At this point in time, the iPad may stand a chance as a full-on computer replacement for only the very basic computer user, the kind that wouldn’t even come across this website. Think email and internet for your grandparents; a tiny sliver of the overall computing market share.

In two or three years to come, however, the iPad may offer a more serious alternative as a laptop replacement for a broader user base. Think additional content creation tools and relaxed app store policies. And even further down the road — I’m talking ten years or more here — the techies among us (you!) may even be able to rely on an iDevice for their sole computer needs. Think ample horsepower and accessibility to development tools.

Therefore, the percentage of users that rely solely on an iDevice will steadily increase while the computer market as we define it today will decrease. This will affect both Apple and Microsoft, of course. But it will disturb Microsoft’s operations disproportionally stronger since they not only have more to lose, but customers are also more likely to switch to an Apple iDevice over a Microsoft one. Unless, of course, Microsoft finally starts to compete in the market that Apple has all but jump started two weeks ago.

What about connectivity, though? Opinion on the internet has it that Apple’s iPad couldn’t possible replace a desktop without a USB port (better yet: three or four), display dock, LAN jack, and Floppy Drive. Again: I believe that we must think big picture here. In ten years wireless technology may be powerful enough to cut cords altogether. And even if it doesn’t, don’t forget about Intel’s Light Peak technology, in whichʼs development Apple is rumored to have had more than a helping hand. What if Apple would replace the traditional dock connecter with an optical, lightweight, Light Peak port in the iDevice generations to come? A port that will not only multiply the speed with which you can sync your files, but also let you connect a plethora of devices, including keyboard, camera, 30-inch display, or whatever else you’d might want to jam into your iPad. One simple port. Unlimited connectivity. Light Peak could be the answer.

What I’m trying to say is this: Look at Apple’s iWork apps and keyboard dock. Can’t you see the signs — early they may be?

Whoever believes that devices like iPad donʼt have a chance to take over the computing market, doesn’t see the big picture. Microsoft, of course, will fight to remain relevant during all of this change, but it isn’t difficult to argue that Apple set the rules this time around. For the first time — in a long time — Apple stands an actual, realistic, chance to grab the crown from Microsoft. Not in the Windows vs. Mac war — that one will be all but irrelevant in twenty years — but in the iDevice war. Thatʼs where the market will be heading after Apple ignited the fire. All Apple needs to do in order to win is to keep innovating and growing their line of iDevices while holding on to that dominating market share for dear life. The remaining pieces will fall into place automatically.

Tick, tock, tick, tock, Microsoft. Time may well be running out on you.

Questions or comments? Let me know: @eierund on twitter.

About Philipp
Philipp lives in Los Angeles and writes as a freelance author for The Apple Press and FOCUS Online. He loves cereal. Perhaps unrelated, crying babies are known to disappear in thin air on his Twitter.

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