The topic has been much discussed in Apple circles: Will the iPhone support third-party applications? John Gruber chimed in on the subject today from his blog Daring Fireball.

According to Gruber, third-party apps are a matter of the Steve Jobs classic “under-promise, over-deliver” strategy. By delaying the announcement of such functionality, Apple is granted additional time to develop an iPhone SDK (Software Development Kit) while still meeting their promise of a late June shipping date. Further, when they do release the SDK, it will be met with enthusiasm by the iPhone owning masses, and generate additional buzz around the product. From Daring Fireball:

By setting initial expectations that there might never be third-party software for iPhone, any future support for third-party apps will be treated as good news. Software projects often take longer to complete than expected; look no further than Leopard. If the official ship date for an iPhone SDK is “never”, it can’t be late.

This line of logic, however, only extends so far. Jobs was quoted at the “All Things D” conference as saying:

“This is a very important trade-off between security and openness. We want both. We’ve got good ideas, and sometime later this year, we can open it up to third-party apps, and keep security.”

As usual, this enigmatic statement presents more questions than it answers. Most notably, how long does Apple expect its customers to wait for additional functionality? Will the iPhone be able to build a strong following without an answer to the third-party question? Will the design’s built-in functionality be enough to keep new users interested?

Obviously, the iPhone is an important product for Apple. A failure to sell as expected would deal a significant blow to the otherwise successful company. As the initial excitement surrounding the iPhone dies away, there must be something already in place to keep the public interested.

Gruber makes a valid point. Apple will not release an SDK until it is ready. However, he fails to consider the negative effect this would have on both perception and sales. One needs to look no further than the Apple TV to see an example of a good product with a bad start. Sales of the Apple TV have not been overwhelming, forcing Apple to play catch-up with additional features and hardware upgrades as announced earlier this week. Jobs himself refers to the Apple TV as a “hobby,” a distinction he certainly does not apply to the iPhone.

How will Apple solve this dilemma? Will they release an SDK now to satisfy demand and risk low quality, or wait until the iPhone audience matures but risk creating a “chicken and egg” situation? The answer is neither.

Apple will announce the release of the SDK at WWDC in June. In doing so, Apple could silence nay-sayers who denounce the idea of a “smartphone” that lacks the ability to increase in functionality while still allowing themselves time to develop their solution. And what better place to make such an announcement than the Developers Conference.

The statement regarding third-party apps would knock many fence-sitters from their delicate perch. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter when they come out, we’re all willing to wait for third-party apps, but the possibility of never having them at all could seriously impact initial sales.

The answer will come soon enough, as WWDC is less than two weeks away.

Maybe I’m crazy. Feel free to utilize the comment section, I’ll be reading them.

[Update: The New York Times seems to echo my sentiment:

A person briefed on Apple’s plans said that at its software developer conference this month, Apple intends to announce that it will make it possible for developers of small programs written for the Macintosh to easily convert them to run on the iPhone.

Not that I'm bragging...]